If Mick Newell were Sky's WASP predictor he would give Nottinghamshire up to a 20 per cent chance of winning the County Championship.
Defeat to Durham and Yorkshire's innings win over Lancashire has opened up a 26 point gap at the top of Division One.
But with Yorkshire the visitors to Trent Bridge next week and two games still to play, the Notts director of cricket is refusing to throw the towel in.
He said: "We know we've got to win that match now.
"We aren't giving up. You would say we've got a ten or 20 per cent chance of winning the Championship as it stands but we can change that."
Notts were bowled out for 320 at Chester-le-Street, giving the hosts a 54 run win to ease their own relegation fears.
Newell felt the game was lost in the build-up to the final morning.
"We didn't play well enough over four days. We lost wickets in both innings to the new ball and that cost us. They bowled better than us with the new ball and that was crucial."
"We let the game get away from us on the third morning as well. Paul Collingwood batted very well for his hundred, but we were left to chase far more than we expected."
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